How Leaders Can Thrive in a ‘Distributed Everything’ World
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During the next 10 years, humanity will experience an explosive connectivity and asymmetric upheaval.
Very little will remain constant in the new world – technology, employment hierarchy, monetary systems. That includes leaders and organizations
In the future of amplified digital connectivity, the speed, frequency, and scope of change will be dramatically different.
Anything that can be distributed will be distributed.
“How will this affect you?”
Ten years from now:
Ten years from now, you could be a leader in a distributed organization. It will have no center, it will grow from the edges, and it won’t be controllable.
Hierarchies will come and go in shape-shifting forms resembling a swirl. Rock-star leaders will be rare.
In our increasingly VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous) world, simple will be great, but simplistic will be dangerous.
“How do you thrive?”
Grow into a team of networked leadership:
Inner Strength and Grounding
People who do not possess an inner sense of strength will be more shocked by external disruptions. Most companies now offer mindfulness training and that is great for some people, but there are no magic means to be grounded in the face of the VUCA World. Leaders must find an approach that works for them, including exercise, sleep, and mental focus.
Bio-Empathy
Bio-empathy involves learning the principles of nature and applying them to yourself to develop your body, mind, and leadership style. Nature works in cycles, not straight lines. Nature is loaded with dilemmas, not just problems leaders can solve.
Quiet Transparency
The ability to be open and transparent about what matters to you, without advertising yourself. Clarity of direction will be rewarded in this future, but certainty will be punished.
The disruptions of the next decade will be beyond what most leaders are equipped to handle. They will be susceptible to simplistic solutions.
- Provide enough clarity to organizations to make disruption tolerable, even motivational.
- Be explicit about where they’re going, but flexible about how to get there.
- Avoid judging too soon (the classic mistake of knee-jerk problem solvers), but realize that deciding too late can be even more dangerous.
How might leaders prepare for the next 10 years?
Bob Johansen
Dr. Bob Johansen is a distinguished fellow with the Institute for the Future in Silicon Valley. For more than 30 years, Bob has helped organizations around the world prepare for and shape the future, including corporations such as P&G, Walmart, McKinsey, United Rentals, and Syngenta, as well as major universities and nonprofits.
The author or co-author of 10 books, Bob is a frequent keynote speaker. This post draws from his best-selling Leaders Make the Future and his new book The New Leadership Literacies.
Bob earned a B.S. from the University of Illinois and a Ph.D. from Northwestern University, as well as a Master’s degree focused on world religions.
Thank you for another great reminder. I am super excited about The New Leadership Literacies book.
Wow! This was right on time as my organization is going through a disruptive period right now. Being able to be better prepared (at least in my mind) for even more disruption will be key to professional survival moving forward.
I work within extreme disruption every day. I would love the opportunity to have a read:-)
Thank you Dr. Johansen for the interesting read and thought provocation. It is a good reminder that as our work environment continues to change along with the people that find themselves within in, that effective leaders must remain vigilant of those changes and work with them; not against them. This will help your organization thrive in the future.
Excellent insights. Even my small-to-medium charitable non-profit is seeing that “everything” is becoming more distributed. Things that used to be relatively static (i.e. changing in five+ year cycles) are now moving toward fluidity: structure, priorities, workspaces, projects… The quiet transparency that Bob mentions is particularly tough in a very me-centric society and culture. This will be in interesting transition to track, while also being challenging for those making the transition.
Preparation for the future leadership model will comes from multiple sources. First is the family – with people (like myself) working distributed now, we will teach our kids and their friends about this. Next comes the schools, who already do some distributed learning throughout high school, and then the colleges.
Companies need to teach this – they don’t! Giving someone Skype and a headset is not preparing them for working with people globally! Everything from cultural differences to effective meetings must be offered and coached.
mp/m
Wow, what an interesting world of work we are entering. The goals of an organization should always been the target. Giving employees the tools and knowledge they need to get there is the leader’s responsibility.
Thanks, Dan. I am interested in the prediction that “Rock star leaders will be rare.” Is that because there will be more humility?
It seems that every single day I’m reminding someone that the strengths and talents that got them where they are today will not necessarily get them where they want to be in the future. We must continue to adapt and grow to be the best person that we can be and utilize our strengths to the fullest in the face of uncertainty. Uncertainty can be frightening at times, but we should fear stagnation even more.
That perspective really expanded my thinking this morning. Off to a good start for the day! Thank you.
Thanks for discussing this journey and the challenges that we will face as the world continues to evolve and change at such a fast pace…very interesting! Can’t wait to read the book!
Personal interaction, customer service still win a share despite the Amazonation making commodities out of customers
Thanks for this! My work over the last 15 years has been to create these kinds of networks and the ‘judging’ question is something that my colleagues and I always argue about because it is practically an art. One needs to be able to distinguish between something new that is promising as opposed to dangerous.
Change is coming. Hope this post opens some eyes and provokes some important conversations in board rooms across the world.
We’ve had bob Johansen coming to engage our emerging leaders for a number of years now in our company; his insights and presentation style are highly engaging. You can listen to Bob speak all day and not get tired. I highly recommend his books for anyone interested in sustaining a business in this environment. Thank you for running a great blog.
As the demands of leadership change, allowing for organizational turbulence helps in thinking differently about approaches to problems. Leaders have to cultivate connections within and outside their organizations to move forward. Thanks for the read!
Thanks for the Blog… I am enjoying reading and learning. The new book sounds very interesting.
Great post. Even in the Healthcare where I work, we see the mentality that the best way to care for patients is the way we are doing it right now (in silos, forcing them to come to us for our convenience, and in a very linear fashion). I think the distrusted world will be a tough adjustment. Thanks for the insight.
This was a great read. Really helping to ensure we are always looking to the future and not being stuck in the now. Being prepared for what could be coming allows us the chance to be those “rock star” leaders in the future.
This has been going on since the early 2000s in a lot of larger organizations where outsourcing became the norm – once you decide to outsource functions, things naturally move to the edges.
I think the core vs context discussion is more important now than ever – you want to keep your core close to whatever the ‘middle’ of the corporation is, and let the rest push out to the edges.
And I think some of the employee vs contractor questions facing legal scrutiny will have some impact on what that ‘middle’ is and who can be there.
Lastly, will people continue to allow a small cadre of folks at the top of an organization reap the majority of benefits from the work of the multitude – that seems to be what happens as we push things to the edge, and that may not be good for the multitude…
Thanks and have fun! – Bob
Very nice! Particularly enjoyed these quotes:
“People who do not possess an inner sense of strength will be more shocked by external disruptions.”
“Avoid judging too soon… but realize that deciding too late can be even more dangerous.”
I’ve reread the post and started to think that businesses will become sort of like “projects”.
The team of founders/builders (or we could refer to them like project managers) will exist to see things through and reap the benefits. They will bring in the skills they need when they need them and let them go when they have served their purpose. They will pay well for those skills, but that is it. Back to the basic trade system. You do this. I give you $. Done.
I’m making a generalization that keeping expenses as low as possible in order to maximize ROI is common among many businesses.
I suggest we already live our lives like this. I don’t pay a plumber full time wages in case I need them. I pay for pluming skills when I need them, and do not pay for them when they are not needed. We already have a similar outsourcing/contractual/transactional/networking mindset for some things.
I can see the future bringing even more of this thinking into businesses. An advantage is this will help keep costs low and investors happy. A disadvantage is that leading (even just working) in a project-style environment where you provide a piece of a bigger puzzle and then you are done when your piece is complete, will force people to learn the “freelance” mindset.
Can you be fully engaged in the moment when you know you need to look for what is next for you when you complete what you doing now?
Do you trust others will do their best work they can in the shortest time, knowing that when they finish they are finished and need to find income elsewhere?
If there is a chance that you could return to work on another part of the project, you will do what it takes to prove you are worth hiring again. But what if there is no chance?
What about if you are the leader knowing there is no future opportunity for the person whose contract will be completed soon, what do you tell them to keep them engaged and doing the quality of work you need?
I realize I still have a lot to learn. lol
my reply was to add more thoughts to my own original post, but it appears like it is to Michael Hales. I’m not sure I’m clicking the proper Reply button. I really do have a lot to learn. 🙂
Anything that can be distributed will be distributed.
Are we not at that point now (with the products/resources we currently have)?
The quest for people to find different ways to make money (in the quickest and “easiest” ways) has driven us in that direction already. It’s like there are no more “small-town” good ideas. Once something is good it has to scale fast otherwise copycat-versions will appear on the large scale and squeeze out the original.
If you build something that has value, you have to distribute it before others beat you to it.
I may be misunderstanding the use of “distributed”.
Other comments make me feel that it may mean something more to the effect of a business built with virtual employees or no physical head office.
Many businesses do this now. Also many businesses don’t. Trust and accountability are huge for leaders in businesses with no physical location. Way different than the let’s track employee “busyness” as our proof of their value type of thinking that still exists in some areas.
I agree, being a leader in either of those environments means you can’t be like the leaders of old.
Thank you for the post. I believe you are right about the VOCA World and the increase in connectivity and that the world will be harder for us to control. It does seem likely to me, however, that there will be new leaders who will be able to control decentralised organisations; that ability being what makes them future leaders to replace those of us who struggle to adjust.
I love a future oriented approach!
This will be an excellent read!
Change is already upon us. The growing complexity and pace of change presents leaders with opportunities to think and act in new ways. I am looking forward to learning more about Bob Johansen’s work and his insights on how we can navigate the path forward.
Very wise! Thank you, as always, for a timely and insightful post.
I think the driving force behind the distributed vs. centralized management culture is primarily technology. Rigidity by corporations is quickly being supplanted by flexibility, brought on by the ability of Leaders/managers/workers to engage wherever they are located. In most cases, this is allowing decisions to be reached nearer the point of impact, in a more timely manner, and better able to effect meaningful change.
Managing Paradox has always been a critical leader skill set. While distributed operation may be an inevitability for some tech companies, manufacturing will still require a geographic base. We will have to be capable of embracing the distribution of those services while still supporting the traditional manufacturing operation–and that paradox will be a whole different challenge!
Being transparent without advertising self is something that I think can be a challenge for leaders period…not just millennials.
“The ability to be open and transparent about what matters to you, without advertising yourself.” Toeing this delicate line will be difficult as new millennial leaders come on board in leadership positions. Being too transparent can appear to be self-promoting and lack of transparency as being closed off or untrustworthy.
It will be interesting to look back on this article term years from now.
Interesting read….would like to learn more.
Leading into an unknown future. Scary and exciting at the same time.
Very stimulating ideas and insight into leadership strategies–particularly using bio-empathy. This idea of how life often works in cycles and their are difficult diliemmas without “black and white” problems to be solved is extremely helpful. Thanks for the insights!
Flexible, pliable methods and stratagies are going to be even more required for sure.
Thanks. I can see this and feel this direction right now in the company I work for. Right now, I am an observer to it. I’m not sure if it’s one or the other way, i.e., distributed vs. centralized. I believe there must be a balance, but what does that look like? A few at the top and a hive of activity below? I still need to feel trust, and this distributed direction does not feel that comfortable to me. I look forward to reading this book!
Would definitely like to learn more about this
When I look back on the last 10 years and how things have changed I approach the 10 year future with curiosity and a little bit of fear. I feel that a confident sense of self and strong values will help guide me and help me continue to be the positive leader that I am. I enjoyed the post and the analysis of what is the now and what will be the future.
Wow; the concept is exciting in the midst of today’s centralized and standardized world.
I have actually been thinking about this phenomenon for quite some time as the “internet of things” explodes and everything is connected, whether there is a need to connect or not. I was pleased to see this article and book discuss the soft skills necessary to succeed in the future. This was a great article for me.
Information, data, applications, and all kinds of resources are becoming more and more ubiquitous. Working remotely on demand is becoming more and more common. For leaders who grew up in a digitally connected environment, navigating in a VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, Ambiguous) world will be much more intuitive and natural than for leaders who developed within hierarchies and bureaucracies. The “older dogs” will need to learn new tricks, while the younger ones will need to remain nimble, flexible, and ever-aware of their online presence and digital persona. Fascinating, exciting, and somewhat unnerving!
Very interesting. The content surprised me, but then made perfect sense.
This is my all time favorite and most helpful blog! Bob’s book sounds interesting and helpful as well. I’d love to win a free copy!
This topic has been heavy on my mind and wanting to grow in a leadership position. What the future holds and how leadership styles may change due to growing technology. I meet with more individuals over conference calls so reading “be a dynamic presence even when you’re not there in person, and (5) keep your personal energy high and transmit that energy throughout your organization” hits close to home.
As always, great insights! Really liked this quote: “Clarity of direction will be rewarded in this future, but certainty will be punished.”
This is an interesting concept, one that I previously had not given thought to. How did I miss this? Thank you for sharing.
Interesting perspective, Hopefully I will be retired and or still thriving/surviving.
I have been known for saying “for cross the bridge when we get to it”! Projecting the future is complex and engaging, we will see!
I need to build the capacity of our Board and the leaders in our organization to understand and take-off in this world without hierarchies, in this world that is based on innovation and large-scale networks of learners. This is my charge over the next several years until retirement.
This is so good! Interesting info and very useful!
I think becoming more decentralized could help a lot of organizations become highly effective and efficient, given the right kind of leadership. I would add that these leaders need to have a growth mindset and a genuine curiosity about others.
the “New Leadership Literacies” sounds like an interesting book with new concepts to think about, sort of a prophecy of things to come. I work with various non-profit organizations that are working with introducing millennials to boards. I see the changes in thoughts and actions! Thanks for the offer.
I already work in a company like this doing great work, but things like legal compliance or HR initiatives get really hard to change. I’m very interested to see your perspective and suggestions on how to handle administrative and leadership duties in such organizations.
Thank you. It is important to look ahead and start preparing for future possibilities.
This is an interesting concept. I am a system learning & development leadership consultant and coach for an organization that is comprised of 30,000+ employees over 15+ locations. We are constantly struggling to find the balance between system-wide and embedded resources. Look forward to learning more!
Thanks for this post. In the arena of education we have already experienced so much change in how we meet the needs of students and how we communicate/do business. This absolutely impacts our ability to lead well. The mindfulness point is very timely and shifting to a networking model of leadership would be beneficial for all.
This concept resonates with some of the graduate school classes I took in strategic communication—specifically, globalization of corporations, remote workers and changes in leadership skills. I look forward to reading the book!
It is important to not conflate the cycles of nature with the linear trajectory of one’s life, this is what the ancients did: “As Henri-Charles Puech said of Greek thought in his seminal Man and Time: “No event is unique, nothing is enacted but one…; every event has been enacted, is enacted, and will be enacted perpetually; the same individuals have appeared, appear, and will appear at every turn of the circle,” Thomas Cahill, The Gifts of the Jews, pg. 5, Nan A. Talese Doubleday, 1998. Cahill writes that it was the singularity of Jewish thought that broke out of this circle to find a new way of thinking and experiencing one’s life,” a new way of understanding and feeling the world, so much so that it may be said with some justice that theirs is the only new idea that human beings even had. But their worldview has become so much a part of us that at this point it might as well have been written into our cells as a genetic code. “id. “For better or worse, the role of the West in humanity’s history is singular. Because of this, the role of the Jews, the inventors of Western culture, is also singular: there is simply no one else remotely like them; theirs is a unique vocation…the very idea of vocation, of a personal destiny, is a Jewish idea.” id., 3.
Yet, Ruehle’s book blog, How Leaders Can Thrive in a ‘Distributed Everything’ World, argues that “learning the principles of nature and applying them to yourself to develop your body, mind, and leadership style. Nature works in cycles, not straight lines. Nature is loaded with dilemmas, not just problems leaders can solve,” seems to rephrase in modern terms what Puech argued 2,000 years ago, which Western Civilization rejected with the spread of the Church. Indeed, Ruehle seems to reject the success of the fusion between Jewish and Christian thought that created the freest societies the planet ever experienced.
Consequently, Ruehle side steps this fact, then contradicts himself when he writes “Clarity of direction [my emphasis] will be rewarded in this future, but certainty will be punished, “as well as “2. Be explicit about where they’re going [my emphasis], but flexible about how to get there.” when practicing” quite transparency” because he speaks of leadership in terms of providing teams a sense of direction while “direction” means “a line of thought or action or a tendency or inclination” and “going” means to “progress or advancement,” Dictionary.com, which can only infer linear direction since one cannot progress or advance going in circles. Additionally, “quite transparency” is another ancient idea, called “humbleness,” which means “not proud or arrogant; modest.” Dictionary.com.
Further, the idea that “there are no magic means to be grounded in the face of the VUCA World.,” is also misinformed about the lessons of history. History does teach us that when individuals believe in their lives matter, and grounded with purpose, then their purpose is contagious to others. The trick is to discern whether that purpose is for the better good, and the key to that is simple: to always ask whether the benefit flows only to the leader or to his flock.
My family ancestors, Jews, American Revolutionary War heroes, and Scottish aristocracy believed their lives mattered (whether you believed in them or not does not matter, what matters is what they believed in their time) and in the process created Western Civilization the freedoms we enjoy. I stand on their shoulders with a duty to not only preserve and protect all they have accomplished, but to also educate future generations on ways to apply the lessons of the past to ensure human freedom perpetually.
Sounds very interesting. I hope my name gets selected. Thanks!
This is a great reminder that distributed and federated are coming to an organization near each of us, and the skills needed to be an leader in the future won’t be the same as it was, or is today. I look forward gaining insights from Dr. Johansen’s book.
Interesting concepts, all. I’m seeing signs of some of this already in the way we are driving workable units — Scrum and Scaled Agile practices expanding to other fields besides IT. Autonomy is golden in these environments, and that’s a tough lesson to teach.
Interesting insights! I see this in a lot of organizations I am involved with. There seems to be little appetite for hierarchies, structure, and rising up through the ranks of an organization to earn respect of peers. The competitive landscape means that people tend to always chase the shiny new promising object rather than dig in and do the work with what they have. Developing a leadership style compatible with this new era will be very important.
I like this! Definitely feel i can benefit from more Bio-Empathy. Ill need to look at what that means for me and my team!
I find this discussion very interesting and can’t wait to read this book. However, I work for a very large globally distributed company today and my whole team is remote from each other and this has been the push within the organization for the last 10 years. Now, the push is to get everybody co-located and to work with local teams to be ‘more productive’ — no more remote. So what will really happen in the future?
Great looking book, and interesting blog post. Entering to win, hope I get it!! 🙂
As the youth enter our work force and the baby boomers leave combined with the growing advances in technology, there are more and more working remote. This is an exciting concept for those of all ages who will open their minds and embrace the change.
This is good stuff. I can easily see this being the trend. We must be ready to adapt. I’ll be very interested in the new book as well.
Very interesting post.I am intrigued by what the book may entail. I like his comments about “quiet transparency.” Thanks for sharing!
This sounds very interesting. I’m always looking for that glimpse into the future of what leadership qualities our next generation of executives and managers will need.
Very interesting comments in addition to the blog post. Maintaining our humanity while functioning through digital connectivity is a problem we are seeing now. Change is exciting but we must attempt foresight to evaluate the impact before we accept it’s inevitability.
I actually felt a little put off by the opening apocalyptic language, But I felt more in agreement as he started discussing practical recognitions and applications. Might be interesting and helpful.
Change is always (usually) good – however I feel losing the aspect of human connection is somewhat detrimental. Looking forward to reading more on this and seeing what may be in store for us.
Bob, this is a great topic and one I’m very interested in as I’m in the plumbing wholesale business and I know our industry will be changing how we distribute over the next 10 years. Looking forward to reading your book.
This world is definitely changing and making us all distributors in our own way. I look forward to reading your book and trying to figure out how to move forward in the plumbing wholesale industry. Thanks for making your work and research available.
Interesting idea.
“Nature works in cycles, not just straight lines.” Don’t expect definitive solutions when nature doesn’t operate as such. Can’t wait to crack open Leadership Literacies!
Clarity of direction, while embracing organic growth to get there?! I now have a new question to answer within my own leadership: how might I influence staff to embrace organic growth (given that “organic growth” means not geometric – responding to naturally emerging circumstances, challenges, opportunities, with open urgency, eagerness and enthusiasm for professional growth). In the words of Bruce Lee, ” If you put water into a cup, it becomes the cup. You put water into a bottle and it becomes the bottle. You put it in a teapot, it becomes the teapot. Now, water can flow or it can crash. Be water, my friend.”
I agree – the future is changing from what it used to be
I’d welcome the opportunity to continue to grow and further hone my ability to help others. Thanks for the chance to acquire this book!
I’m looking forward to hearing more about these exciting and timely concepts. I agree that we need to focus more on these emerging thoughts and ideas- thanks for moving us forward in our thoughts and disruptive thinking, Lori
I feel like I have just begun my journey and adding to my library would be a great help! Can’t wait!
Interesting but highly appropriate. Over the last five years I have seen these distributed transitions moving fast. I have found that those with inner strength and a positive attitude can and will adjust. Work hard and as noted with clarity and be comprehensive in your efforts. The note about Quiet transparency stands out, do one job quietly and thoroughly with a direction and do not overtly seek glory it will come to you. If one seeks glory the jackals that exist will swoop in and consume you. If one is clear confident positive and works hard one can roll with the disruption as one watches those less confident fall unfortunately to the sideline. Look at the challenges coming as making life more fuller and interesting because others will not.
Thank you. The dissonance of my day was soothed by your post.
Interesting insight! Thank you for sharing. I just found your blog today. I think I have some catching up to do.
Great quick article that we all need to be reminded of. Thanks for challenging me!
Excited to read and share with my admin.!
Absocorrect Dan! Having foresight for 0 years versus the immediacy of impact today will change our influence for the better and longest rm.
Intriguing premise for the book! Thanks for the opportunity.
We’re there – decision making is being moved to where the knowledge resides and its speeding up delivery while improving quality. I think it’s about creating the right conditions for success personally as well as with your direct reports / peers. People will thrive is the conditions are right, just like in nature.
Dear Dan,
A very interesting & thought-provoking post!
The future leaders need to go with a humane approach. Appreciation, Recognition & Rewards can play a major role in shaping the future of an organization. To remain progressive, the leaders need to follow the Performance based culture with humanity.
There will be a horizontal organization with lesser hierarchy levels and task based performing team led by the visionary leaders.