How Leaders Predict the Future
The ridiculous notion that you know what’s going to happen tomorrow causes false confidence today. This is verifiable in the buying and selling of stocks, for example.
Daniel Kahneman’s research suggests that our ability to predict which stocks to buy or sell is as accurate as flipping a coin. Most who get rich on the stock market should attribute their success to luck.
Create it, don’t predict it:
Drucker said, “The only way to predict the future is to create it.”
If the present is unsatisfactory, it’s likely you made a poor decision yesterday.
Picture the future:
Imagine your preferred future…
- Relationally. What types of relationships do you want?
- Financially. Where would you like to be?
- Personally. How would you like to feel about yourself when you wake up tomorrow?
- Managerially. How do you want your team/customers to think of you?
- Organizationally. What does your preferred work environment feel like?
The past is the future for the passive.
What do you need to do right now that makes your preferred future likely?
- If you want your team to function effectively without you, what do you need to stop doing? What do they need to start doing?
- If you want a fulfilling marriage, how do you need to treat your spouse now?
- How might you develop self-reliance in your children today? (Assuming you don’t want them living in your basement until they’re 40.)
- What do you need to do now to create an organization people love working at tomorrow?
Hand-wringing isn’t the answer.
It’s self-defeating to justify an unsatisfying present by pointing fingers at others. Don’t think for a minute that your life would be better if someone else made it better.
Creating the future is the work of leaders.
In an unstable world, the best option is creating the future now.
How might leaders create their preferred future today?
Dan,
I think we need to challenge ourselves first to make a difference for others as a daily function. Ask what you can do for them not what they can do for you.
Similar to JFK many years ago ” Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country”.
Kinda goes along with what you’re saying here:
“Luck favors the Prepared.”
Poor Richard / Ben Franklin
Awareness of past experience (instinct)
is essential
for visualizing present circumstance (the “now”); and
The Will to improve circumstance (innovation)
Is essential
for recognition of the futures of the opportunities as they come by.
“You’ll know it when you see it.”
It’s a dynamic, not a material or moral imperative.
“Don’t think for a minute that your life would be better if someone else made it better.” I’m not kidding when I say that gave me chills. Thank you, Dan!!!
“Don’t think for a moment that your love would improve if someone made it better.”
We all have a semantic mid-app here …
Typed as “mis-app” (not “mid-app”) …
By actively learning all there is of the subject matter one is trying to pursue. Knowledge helps guide one’s decisions.
Whilst I cannot predict the future I can see patterns develop that with enough experience usually (I’ve found) have a high probability of occurrence. I’ve found I can act from those developing patterns. I can’t really tell you why, when or how but its usually my gut checking with my brain that tells me something is developing with facts that back up those feelings. I can then dialogue with all affected parties and make contingency plans to be prepared for the patterns to play out. I wonder whether anyone else has seen this evolve over their careers. I’ve also seen this play out in family dynamics as I’ve evolved as a husband and father and now father-in-law.
In this vein, I often say when asked to pull out my crystal ball, “I’m not psychic, I just how have over thirty years of experience on which to base my answer.”
Skippy: I like that I usually follow up and “my gut” is appropriately large because of those 30 plug years experience (ha ha).
As a successful leader, one got to believe that he has achieved his goal(s) and push forward to actualize the goals of his team know and affirming that their goals are his priority. To build them up, challenging, motivating and guilding them in the right trail… Thanks Dan!!!
I had saved this post because I thought the title looked interesting. I’m glad that I did, too, because the content is great. Great insight.