How to Think Negative and Still Succeed
Even Eeyore is right sometimes.
Overly optimistic leaders:
- Minimize challenges.
- Fail to anticipate problems.
- Throw in the towel when it stays dark too long.
Stockdale:
James Stockdale – former P.O.W. – told Jim Collins, “You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end—which you can never afford to lose—with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.”
Collins wrote, “To this day, I carry a mental image of Stockdale admonishing the optimists: ‘We’re not getting out by Christmas; deal with it!’” (Good to Great)
Lies:
You can’t lie to yourself and get away with it.
It’s dangerous to tell yourself you’re a great speaker when nodding heads say otherwise. It’s better to admit you suck and deal with it than to pretend you’re great and drift.
Tell yourself you can learn and improve. But don’t tell yourself you’re great when you suck.
“… a Pollyannaish attitude may have its costs—perhaps because it fosters complacency.” Scientific American
Do a premortem:
“A typical premortem begins after the team has been briefed on the plan. The leader starts the exercise by informing everyone that the project has failed spectacularly. Over the next few minutes those in the room independently write down every reason they can think of for the failure…” (HBR)
The person who anticipates potential problems is a gift to an overly optimistic leader.
Just because someone points out a problem doesn’t mean they’re against the decision or project.
When:
- Anticipate problems when planning.
- Anticipate success after committing to a plan.
Grit is about facing challenges with your eyes opened.
What advantages might the dark side offer?
What are some dangers of optimism?
Further reading: The Upside of the Darkside
What advantages might the dark side offer? A path to success if you can deal with the mission of going from Negative to positive, not always this moment, that instant, perseverance gets us out of the dark dungeons of the dark side.
What are some dangers of optimism? Understanding why we are optimistic as compared to being prepared for the “Oh no” moment, thinking they don’t happen.
Learning the realistic facts that anything can happen good or bad and being prepared for that moment.
The big thing to keep in mind is that “positive thinking” (or negative thinking, as well) is not a strategy … too many of us adopt either as a worldview/”self-fulfilling prophecy.”
Confidence is borne of anticipating as many contingencies (good AND bad) as possible, and having a plan – a strategically sensible response – to adapt as they arise.
Good leaders are in a constant “essential” tension, ever vigilant, both visualizing and analyzing, as reality happens. No plan – in reality – ever survives – whole – the first engagement (in reality).
Just having the term ‘premortem’ is a wonderful tool to facilitate discussions about new projects and change. We’ve all been warned not to voice too many ‘what-ifs’ when new ventures are presented for fear of being considered the negative team member — vs. doing just what you say above — playing out the scenarios so as to be prepared for the worst (or unexpected) while working towards the success.
So I will detail this one: “Stockdale:
James Stockdale – former P.O.W. – told Jim Collins, “You must never confuse faith that you will prevail in the end—which you can never afford to lose—with the discipline to confront the most brutal facts of your current reality, whatever they might be.”
Collins wrote, “To this day, I carry a mental image of Stockdale admonishing the optimists: ‘We’re not getting out by Christmas; deal with it!’” (Good to Great)”
Its October of 1975 I’m at my first college experience (Freshman Year at the Naval Academy in Annapolis, MD (I only lasted one year by the way) and its a Saturday night get together for a Christian Mens Group (no women yet at the Academy). James Stockdale walks in white hair, smile, white Admirals uniform. All stand up and he says men sit down and relax. He then goes on and tells his story of strength, redemption, survival against all odds and his ever lasting belief in Jesus, salvation and being positive in the situation. As noted above he talked about discipline but in this case discipline that God was with him and others, that regardless of circumstances with faith, with discipline you can progress and even survive. He answered questions and did say, they had to face the circumstances there were going to be imprisoned for a long time (it was obvious he said) and how they dealt with their imprisonment was the important aspect of the response to their captures. He acknowledged one has to face what life throws at you, one has to see it as it is and one has to respond the best one can. He and others chose a pathway and they lived it, they loved it, they suffered in it but they survived. One of the most important evenings of my life; someone who built upon my upbringing of positivism but with reality in your face. Thank You James Stockdale for your truth, your positive nature and your ever remembering smile to an 18 year old who needed a boot in the ass and some up kicking positive emphasis.
if we don’t acknowledge the shadow can we truly appreciate and understand the light? embrace the suck to find the sweet.
This made me think of the idea of Red Teaming. For example, a pre-mortem telling about negative things that could happen helps to slow groupthink.
Never thought of a premortem! So often we have conducted postmortems and/or good show/bad show reviews following an event or a campaign. Great idea, but a premortem could have prevented some of the bad show. A wise counselor once asked us, prior to a campaign launch, “What’s the worst that could happen?” Perhaps we could start the premortem with that question. Additionally, when we voiced some concerns or fears about what might go wrong, his next question was, “…and then what?” He kept diving deeper into each response to the “then what?” Thank you for the stimulating post!
Great ideas and conversation. Never confuse reality with being negative. The truth is always the truth. Contrarian leadership is needed at all times.