Future-Back: How Leaders Create the Future Today
COVID-19 changes the way you think about the future. On-going disruption changes the way you think about yourself, others, and the present.
The imagined future transforms the present.
In a recent conversation, Mark Johnson, co-author of, “Leading From the Future,” told me that volatility makes long-term thinking more important.
An imagined future helps you navigate an uncertain present.
Mark and his co-author Josh Suskewicz use the expression “Future-back*” thinking. Leaders use present-forward thinking to execute and future-back thinking to create strategy.
Future-back guides present-forward when leaders execute on vision.
Present-forward and future-back are both necessary.
Present-Forward and Future-Back*
What is – What could be
Sustaining – Transformative
Continuous – Discontinuous
Increments existing in paradigm – Develops a new paradigm
Concrete and predictive – Ambiguous and abstract
Drive to certainty – Drive to clarity
Delivery/managerial – Discovery/entrepreneurial
Linear – Multidimensional
Deductive/inductive – Abductive (Hypothesis from incomplete observation)
Analytical – Imaginative and creative
Facts and data-driven – Assumptions-driven
Answers – Questions
Build off base – Clean sheet
Point solutions – Systems thinking
The importance of vision during volatility (2:24):
The future-back process*:
Phase 1: Develop an inspiring vision that is fully actionable.
Phase 2: Translate it into a clear strategy.
Phase 3: Prepare for and manage its implementation.
How to develop your vision*:
#1. Paint a picture of future environments.
Specify a time horizon. “The key is to focus on a date that is distant enough to stretch your thinking, but not so far-off that it is utterly unrelatable.”
Consider the jobs to be done in the future. “Jobs to be done” focuses on customer’s true need. Ted Levitt illustrated the idea when he said, “No one goes to the hardware store to buy a quarter-inch drill: you go to buy a quarter-inch hole.”
#2. Identify major implications of the future.
#3. Envision the future state of your business. Consider core business, adjacent businesses, and new growth.
How is your view of the future shifting?
How does your view of the future impact the present?
*Note: This post is based on my conversation with Mark Johnson and the book, “Lead from the Future: How to Turn Visionary Thinking into Breakthrough Growth.”
Bonus material:
The complete unedited conversation with Mark Johnson including a 10 minute conversation about Clayton Christensen at the end.
How to get out of the weeds (3:25):
This is amazing. It’s just what I needed this morning after navigating some emotional and stressful events at work. I woke up this morning feeling pretty defeated. This really got my head in a better space. Thank you!
Thanks Stacy. Congratulations for moving forward and finding better head space.
Dan had the opportunity to spend time with Herman Kahn, founder of the Hudson Institute and an early Futurist who wrote about everything from nuclear war to the first oil crisis. He would agree that the most difficult and seemingly challenging times require the boldest and longest term strategies. Great post.
Brad
Thanks Brad. I appreciate your story and confirmation of an important idea.
I believe each of us will look at the future based on our lens – professionally and personally. My observation of “family time” has been value-added to our busy lives. I see so many more families walking together while maintaining social distancing from others which I have not observed in recent years.
My professional hat sees a change in health, climate crisis, health security and government infrastructure. I hope that we, as a nation, see the need for global cooperation and collaboration while addressing domestic inequalities.
I believe that we are a learning nation that will incorporate solutions towards lessons learned from this pandemic.
Thanks Kishla. I always appreciate your reflections. It is interesting to see the good that comes out of bad.
Many people make plans to die by leaving a will. Not so many make plans to live. In his book Man’s Search For Meaning, Victor Frankl relates what he learned during his time as a prisoner in Auschwitz. “Everything can be taken from a man but one thing: the last of the human freedoms — to choose one’s attitude in any given set of circumstances, to choose one’s own way.” He cites Nietzsche, “He who has a why to live for, can bear with almost any how.” The why of course is an inspiring vision for the future. Your post is spot-on – as Stephen Covey says, begin with the end in mind. Developing an inspiring vision for the future that is fully actionable is where we all must start, personally, professionally and in business.
Thanks Carolyn. Wow! COVID-19 is a playground compared to the Frankl’s experienc. I find your comment uplifting and challenging.
Let us use “what might be” instead of “what has been” as our yardstick. — Mary Barnett Gibson
Thanks Jennifer. Love the quote. I’m at loss regarding Mary Barnett Gibson.
Typo: I meant Gilson with an L. The quote was in a calendar of quotes called Uppity Women, and didn’t give her bio. A quick search online reveals that she was born in 1877, and was “US factory personnel manager, economist, and educator”.
Other than wearing a mask to the grocery store, my life has not changed very much due to COVID19. I should probably say that my daily activities have not changed very much because I think that everyone’s life has changed drastically. I have had such a rough time with both work and personal relationships that I am constantly thinking years ahead just to attempt to protect myself from any pain or damage that might be lurking in the present. I think the world would be a much better place if people had the ability to think ahead before acting or speaking.
Leaders create the future by empowering their team today, in hopes that they will become leaders in the future.
Hey Dan! This post highlights a central theme of balance. I appreciated that you have challenged the two bucket concept and highlighted that we possess both a bold heart and a tiny heart. The relationship between the bold heart and tiny heart demonstrates the reciprocal nature of our world, in which all interactions and connections operate from constant giving and taking. A lack of self-awareness can lead to an individual functioning with unbalanced hearts, which can significantly impact their social relationship. Individuals with a dominant tiny heart are self-centered and can feel socially isolated as they rely on others to validate their mere existence. On the other hand, individuals with a dominant bold heart can end up feeling socially depleted as they constantly give to others without expecting to be replenished in appreciation from others. The key to increasing one’s self-awareness of these two different hearts is to find a balance that fits the needs of their daily functioning. Personally, I find that my dominant heart shifts depending on my social settings. In my workplace, I am more likely to appreciate my colleagues without expecting or needing shines from them. However, with my lover, family, and friends, I enjoy constant affection and affirmation. Understanding your two hearts can help improve your communication with others as you will be able to effectively and clearly express your needs. Additionally, as you have noted, raising your self-awareness will ultimately improve your understanding of others. Once again self-reflection is a foundational way of improving your leadership and general ability to connect and engage with others. I love that you stated that each day we can choose between tin rhythms or bold rhythms, which highlights the true power of self-efficacy and living in the present moment. Whether you choose to be selfish or selfless, honoring yourself and practicing self-care is the key to living a healthy life.