Making Decisions When the Path is Uncertain and Confusing
The path forward is uncertain and confusing:
- Multiple options present themselves.
- Future contingencies hide from sight.
- Decisions narrow or eliminate options.
- Conflicting advice calls from reliable sources.
- Results matter.
You feel pulled between multiple options. One choice eliminates another.
4 decision-making principles:
#1. Set a decision deadline.
Ask your team, “When can we make this decision?” Set a specific date.
Use greater caution and seek more input when stakes are high. Don’t bet the farm if you can’t afford to be homeless.
#2. Go with your highest point of clarity.
For day-to-day decisions, consider desired outcomes, people impacted, resources required, and then go with your highest point of clarity.
If you’re perfectly clear, you haven’t adequately considered the path forward.
#3. Expect greater clarity AS you move forward, not before.
You’re always looking into a dark room. The light comes on after you step into the dark.
Action clarifies complexity.
Challenge teams to “try something” that won’t cause harm.
Ask, “What can we try in the near term?”
Inaction won’t create the future you desire.
#4. Use the big picture to evaluate current options.
I’m a fan of Tom Peter’s idea, “Do stuff.” But keep the big picture in mind.
Ask:
- What do we really want?
- What are we trying to accomplish?
- If we succeed, how will things be different?
Uncertainty creates confusion.
Confusion causes you to stall.
In a confusing world, pursue your highest point of clarity, before stagnation sets in.
The path emerges as you move forward, not before.
What hinders the decision-making process?
What decision-making principles might you suggest?
Bonus material:
Top 10 Ways to Make Better Decisions (New Scientist)
5 Tips for Better Decision-Making (Psychology Today)
Best decision-making book: Think, Fast and Slow.
All this is good for sorting it out. But we need to be able to sort the trees in the forest.
Confusion and uncertainty (and depression, for that matter) are good – in that
they are self-evident indicators (intuitions?) that something’s trending poorly,
that we are missing something important that needs more conscious consideration.
A better path can emerge before you make irrevocable decisions … but you have to find faith (first? again?) by which to “leap” into a commitment … a faith in the big picture/larger vision … a strategy that promises (not guarantees) better things.
Strategic thinking “shows” the Way
(something to commit to, have faith in)
to leap (take action, as you say) …
and each (tactical) leap thus
begins to define and refine a Path that can be realized.
Action for the sake of acting (w/o faith) only creates more complexity, chaos, and confusion.
If you don’t know where you are going, any way will get you there… you just may not like it once you find your Self actually there.
Thanks Rurbane. Love your use of “faith” in your comment. Faith in the big picture or larger vision guides, informs, and gives meaning to decisions.
Recognize there are two types of decisions.
Type 1 decisions and irreversible.
Type 2 decisions–you can change and try something else if option A doesn’t work.
Thanks Paul. So clear and helpful. I wonder how many decisions are irreversible? For sure, irreversible decision require greater care.