Microsoft’s CSO on Decision Making
Mike Howard, Chief Security Officer at Microsoft, told me one of his best decisions was becoming a police officer. I listened carefully for his explanation because Mike spent 23 dynamic years with the Central Intelligence Agency and has been with Microsoft since 2002.
Self-confidence
Mike explained, “I proved to myself that I could make decisions under pressure.” I knew instinctively what he meant. Leadership requires self-awareness and self-confidence born in the crucible of experience.
Decision-making
I asked Mike if he had suggestions for decision makers and he told me he has General Colin Powell’s approach on his white-board.
“Use the formula P=40 to 70, in which P stands for the probably of success and the numbers indicate the percentage of information acquired. Once the information is in the 40 to 70 range, go with your gut.”
It’s not unusual for leaders to hesitate on the decision-trigger while searching for that last bit of confirming information.
Gathering information
“One way to answer the need for information, Mike explained, is by encouraging constructive dissent.” I thought how simple and useful.
I’ve been in group-think environments where constructive dissent is discouraged and irrelevant decisions flowed down like glistening fools gold.
I’m adding a second “information gathering tip” that came up later in our conversation. I asked Mike what he wished he had known when he was younger. He insightfully said, “It’s ok to say you don’t know. If you’re thinking you don’t want to look like an idiot, others are thinking the same thing. Don’t be afraid to ask.”
I asked if it’s ok to say, “Be dumb up front it’s easier,” I heard Mike smile and say, “That works.”
Pull the trigger
“Make decisions and have enough confidence to stand by them,” Mike Howard.
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Part 2: The Leadership Secret – What it takes to become a leader.
What decision making tips help you pull the trigger on decisions?
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Dan, I would put decision-making in my top three as things that most people never learn to do. In leaders, that lack is extremely damaging, so great post.
I too learned Powell’s rule as young officer, and find it helpful — decide before you know everything, or you’ll decide too late.
For big decisions, I borrow from the Army’s decision brief, in which the commander gives some initial guidance, the staff works through two or three potential courses of action, and then comes back to the commander with a recommendation. Business version: gather your team, talk through more than one possible thing you could do, agree on what your decision factors are, and compare. Then, based on that, use your best judgment.
Powell certainly has left an influence on many of us who practice leadership daily and the military has always been the one institution that develops leaders as part of their DNA. Thanks Greg!
One more comment: I’ve found that often, out of a handful of possible options, only one is really bad. One might be best, but there are often a few others that will work too. There’s not very often than “one right answer,” so take your best shot and don’t worry too much. Moving forward, even if slightly off course, is still getting your closer to the goal than sitting still.
I’d be interested in hearing tips on how to identify the decision-maker. Who really owns the decision? My work team struggles with the concept of not everyone needs to be involved in all decisions. I’m working on a project to help us clearly identify the decision-maker, roles and responsibilities of team members and what behaviors we need to exhibit to make this successful. Any suggestions?
That’s a critical point. Usually it’s assumed the team leader decides, or it falls to whoever will have to provide the resources (money, people, time). However, it’s human nature to pass the buck on decision-making, so I can see where there could be a lot of ambiguity. Our company uses team charters that include authority levels and which senior manager has responsibility for the team. It’s specified which decisions the team can and can’t make. It’s up to the team leader if he/she uses a concensus-building or some other decision-making style.
VSP, I also use a tool called “RACI” with teams that I work with. It is a hierarchical identification approach that talks about who has Responsibility, Accountability, who’s Consulted and who’s Informed. I find that part of the confusion is understanding who has to make the decision and it is part of the review of roles and responsibilities. A quick websearch will probably help you find the approach. If not, contact me directly.
Thanks, Bob! I will certainly look into that. Sounds like what I’m looking for.
Greg and Bob both hit on the main areas to deconflict re who is making the decision. We also use RACIs, both internally, and with our external partner so everyone knows who calls the ball on a given situtation. Within my own Leadership Team, they all have their own areas of responsibility so they have the autonomy to make the call for their areas. The caveat is that if their decision is going to affect another vertical within the group, they need to make sure they keep them in the loop, so we dont make decisions in silos. Ultimately, for a group decision when there are differing opinions on which way to go, I will make the decision.
The military decision making model hinges on the concept of the “commander” as the decision maker. He or she provides the vision, priorities, and timeline that create the framework for the decision. Working for the Commander is a coordinating staff (read – interdisciplinary project team) which, based on available resources such as time and money, develops options for the Commander using a deliberate decision making process. The Commander is a vital role because he or she provides indemnification and authority for the staff to act in the organization on behalf of the Commander. Typically, commercial organizations see this as a very rigid process. On the contrary, it is a delberiate process that requires brainstorming when appropriate, and always demands action.
Dear Dan,
I believe in collecting full and relevant information, personal experience in decision making and having backup plan in case decision goes wrong. I always anticipate two outcomes and think more about unfavourable outcome. When I am ready to face unfavourable consequences, I find more confident to take decisions. When I scare about negative consequences, it actually weakens my confidence to take decision. I think the most critical part in decision making is gut feeling. When person does not dare to take decision, even other information becomes irrelevant. So, gut feeling actually encourages taking decision even if we lack proper information and data.
While making decision, one should avoid being emotional to particular type of decision if it has resulted positive outcome before. There are always external factors beyond our control that can influence our outcomes. So, emotional toughness and mental acumen is necessary to make right decision.
Great article, Dan. I think decision making applies to all areas of life. I like the P = 40-70 formula for moving forward. Being in the midst of career changes, I like having a formula to help me move forward with my gut-level decisions.
Thanks for sharing!
Great interview Dan! Stress plays a key role in decision making too. Under sufficient physical, mental or emotional stress or complexity we all sttruggle to make fast and effective decisions. As counterintuitive as it seems at times, paying attention to our renewal needs – taking regular breaks, eating well, moving throughout the day, deep breathing, meditation, etc. – enhances our decision making capacity. This is especially true in highly complex, and rapidly changing environments.
Excellent point. A key leader discipline in the Army is that all leaders have a sleep plan. Seems a minor point, but without it, during operations leaders tend to get very little sleep, leading to a steep decline in the quality of decision-making.
That is so true Russell and Greg. You cannot burn the candle at both ends and be effective in making decisions. I have seen many leaders getting burned out so have to emphasize with them to prioritize, get organized (work on only the most important issue daily), delegate and practice true work/life balance. Meaning, enjoy your time off, familes, and take vacations!
Good tips on decision-making and in particular the formula. A leader needs to take a timely decision with all relevant factual information collected from the internal as well as external sources. Business Intelligence and tracking on newer developments are other 2 essential factors to arrive at sound decisions. Collective wisdom also makes a good sense and here I mean the top management team plays a big role in deciding the future of an organization.
Great post guys.
We conduct Corporate War Games where decision making is a key part of the process. In some of our crisis management games we immediately identify the strong leaders and remove them from the simulated event to see how the team performs without them. This often leads to others stepping up and making those critical choices under somewhat pressurized situations.
A great leadership decision making event.
Corporate war games can simulate potential disastrous situations that may lead to major disruption of an organization’s operations and negative public perceptions that can quickly undermine credibility and reputation. Such scenarios need to be evaluated in a simulated environment to ensure an organization is prepared to respond and manage the event.
Thanks Mike, this is great blog and in particular the formula.