How to Move Through Uncertainty to Opportunity
Ineffective leaders require certainty before they act, I am certain.
On the other hand, successful leaders make decisions where outcomes are uncertain.
Turbulent times, regulations and compliance, technology, politics, people, and global markets enflame uncertainty. Additionally, complex challenges have more than one solution. Leadership is rich with uncertainty.
A surprising juxtaposition:
“Trustworthy leaders move through uncertainty to pursue opportunity,” Amy Lyman.
The opposite of uncertainty isn’t certainty
it’s opportunity.
Have you been in a meeting where conversations revolved around problems and uncertainties? They usually spiral in despair, stall, and produce nothing. Participants return safely to their offices feeling successful because they dodged imaginary bullets.
Without leadership and direction, groups produce uncertainty. Leaders always pursue opportunities while acknowledging realities. Successful leaders don’t get stuck.
Certainty matters:
Adequate certainty eliminates distracting uncertainties. Five ways every organization builds baselines of certainty:
- Standard operating procedures.
- Decision making models.
- Designated decision makers. (usually those closest to the action)
- Transparency.
- Clarity of mission, vision, and values.
The ultimate goal:
Certainty is not an end in itself. Lyman explains the ultimate goal is, “Creating enough stability to capitalize on opportunities.”
Opportunity:
Strategies that enable organizations to pursue opportunities include:
- Honor.
- Inclusion.
- Valuing and engaging followers.
- Sharing information.
- Developing others.
From: “The Trustworthy Leader.”
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What techniques help create organizational stability?
How do you move through uncertainty to opportunity, without getting stuck?
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Posts based on my conversation with Amy Lyman, author of “The Trustworthy Leader.”
Amy Lyman Kicked my Assumptions
The Secret to Great Places to Work
Dear Dan,
I absolutely agree that leaders believe in uncertainty. Those who seek certainty may feel comfortable for time being in their position but become uncertain later. I always believe that certainly and uncertainty is state of mind, and that differentiate between successful and unsuccessful. I do agree that our effort is certain. For example we can integrate resource, motivate people, reward employees, use best technology but outcomes can not be guaranteed. We do not have control over external dynamics and circumstances. And we can not overlook or sideline them. They exist and have to be there.
I think organizational stability can be created by creating mechanism based on transparency, accountability and sincere reward system.
We can move through uncertainty to opportunity by being hopeful and optimistic. Leaders create hopes and dreams and engage people to achieve those hopes and dreams. They connect people with purpose and that is way they turn uncertainty into opportunity.
Dear Ajay,
You are first in today. I’d say good morning but I think it’s evening in India! So I’ll just say good day.
Your comment today is encouraging both as an affirmation and instruction.
Leadership’s focus on hopes and dreams is essential to success. I’ve found myself caught up in the day to day while forgetting the big picture. Frankly, leaders can’t let anyone get caught up in the day to day for too long. It’s our job to paint the picture… big, bold, loud, and frequently.
We never move through uncertainty w/o hope! Bingo!
You always teach me… thank you.
Best to you,
Dan
I think that successful leaders tend to be risk takers. Risk takers tend to see the opportunity as larger than the uncertainty.
To help the non-risk takers, I think that leading by example, allowing failure, rewarding change, and a focus on positive forward outcomes can not only create stability but train future leaders to be risk takers.
We think about what we talk about. If during the decision process we only talk about the uncertainty, we will only see the uncertainty. If the focus of the discussion is on the opportunity, people will see the opportunity. I am not suggesting ignoring the uncertainty but instead create an environment where the question is framed as “how good can this be for us,” rather than “what could go wrong and how do we avoid it?”
Bonnie, I agree that the best leaders see opportunity as worth the risk. I’d also suggest that they all know (from experience, usually) that failure isn’t fatal. As I read somewhere else this morning, failure is the opportunity to begin again more intelligently.
Hi Bonnie,
I’m thankful to find you here this morning.
Usually we think we talk about what we think…but your statement is also true. Our words have the power to direct our thoughts.
Working to avoid things never creates a preferred future. It creates a safe present.
Doug Conant, former CEO of Campbell’s Soup advocates for forward moving conversations. I learned tons from him.
You enrich the conversation, thank you.
Dan
PS.. hey Greg… I think we all need to learn very early on that failure isn’t the end of the world, sometimes it’s the beginning.
If you wait until you know everything you want to know, opportunities pass before you act. Besides, certainty only comes after the fact; beforehand there is always room for doubt.
So, how to make others (or yourself) comfortable enough to act without certainty? I think of two things:
First, it makes me think of tennis. A good tennis player automatically returns to a position where he/she is most ready for whatever comes next. Rush the net, back to center; lunge to the side, back to center. Always where they can reach the whole court, always on the balls of their feet with racket at the ready. Good organizations know what their ready position is and always start and return there.
The second you already mentioned, which is standards and operating systems. Opportunistic organizations have “normal” well defined, and there are self-directing processes that take care of the instances that are normal. That gives leaders more time to figure out the abnormal.
I personally go back to what General Shinseki (I think) said about operations in Iraq a decade ago: “80% right that I can put on the battlefield today is better than perfect three years from now.”
Hi Greg,
I love “certainty only comes after the fact” I just tweeted it. Of course the problem is unless we act there is no after the fact.
I’m going to remember and use your tennis illustration… makes me think about keeping in touch with values.
The other thing I’m taking with me today is “self-directing.” Man, thats a powerful and loaded term.
You keep on pouring insight into my cup…it’s a joy.
Best regards,
Dan
Dan, I think values are a key part of defining one’s ready position. Great point.
Trying not to slack so much today. 🙂
Dan
Excellent statement this “successful leaders make decisions where outcomes are uncertain”. Enjoy your tweets and blog. Have blogrolled you on my blog. Hope okay.
Best wishes
Thanks Navin and you have my best wishes for success.
Hi Dan,
I would like to question the very basis of this post.
I believe with technology changing at an accelerating pace, socio-economic fabric is no longer able to get back into equilibrium, the way it had been able to do after each and every technology change and disruption in the past.In short, the world is today an intrisically unstable place.In such a situation, a focus on certainity, as you seem to suggest, would not work. One would need to be much more aligned with the flows and relationships between people, objects and the environment.
Kind Regards
Shakti
Interesting perspective Shakti…wonder if history has seen us come up with variations on that angle with each epoch’s arrival and departure. Not sure there has ever been a ‘back to equilibrium’ to get to. Initially the earth was the center of the universe, no equilibrium to get back to that one…flat earth, etc.
Is the pace of business faster and quicker now? Definitely.
Is it world-wide? Yes and that is a first.
Imagine 50 years ago even thinking about having real time dialogues around the world at the same time.
Is a mountain of information, data and knowledge (3 distinct elements) at our fingertips when in the past it was in the power of a few? Yes.
Are there more options? Yes, many, many more options. That does impact the perception of equilibrium too.
I am not sure those are reasons why things may seem to be more or less intrinsically stable or just shifting quicker. We may just be mincing words, instability or shift. Definitely shift happens!
While all of that is occurring, how a leader presents (what is at his/her core) is what is matters. A certainty of values, processes and true vision works wonders and achieves more than can be imagined.
Today is my day for General Shinseki quotes. He also said, “Change is the new steady-state environment.” Shakti, I think you’re sensing something concrete.
Hi Shakti,
The thing I took away from my conversation with Amy and reading her book is that opportunity not certainty is the goal or focus.
There are some certainties in life, without them we couldn’t live. Apples keep falling and 2 + 2 = 4.
However, as you point out in a turbulent world certainty is a myth.
I loved Amy’s idea that we should search for opportunity. Perhaps I missed the mark.
Thanks for your comment.
Cheers,
Dan
At the risk of sounding like I’m stating the obvious, good leader must be able to distinguish between the certain and the uncertain. I.e., what do we know to be true vs. what do we want to be true.
Hi Thomas,
I’ve found what I want to be true a great hindrance and cause of frustration.
Thanks for a short important comment.
Cheers,
Dan
I would distinguish between certainty and clarity. (You mention the importance of clarity regarding mission, vision, and values.)
I cannot be certain whether it will be rainy or sunny tomorrow. However, I can be clear on what we will do in either case.
Very rarely can we ever be certain we have all the information needed and that we have interpreted all of it correctly. But everyone can be clear on what the decision is, why it was made, and the processes we will follow.
Take care and thanks as always for the thought provocation!
David